Macro & Markets
Financial Market Themes

Indicator With 100% Hit Rate Implies New Equity Bull Market

The S&P 500 has crossed above the 76% retracement level from its ATH peak-to-trough drawdown. Since 1929, every time this has happened following a 20% or greater price decline (bear markets), crossing this threshold has proved to be the start of a new bull market.

We saw this back in the early 2010s following the GFC selloff…

And we also saw it back in the early 2000s following the dotcom decline.

Stocks have been on a tear since bottoming back in October – so a pullback is arguably overdue – but the equity market benchmark has never retested its former lows within the following 12 months after it breaks this key retracement level.

This adds to supporting evidence we’ve been citing making the case for the worst being behind us. Add another talking point for the bulls.

Hey KK, do you think that macro conditions like, debt-to-gdp issues, geo-political issues, BRICs, or even de-dollarizing could make this indicator less useful now? My thinking is that 1929-2023 was the century of the USA, but it seems to be shifting somewhat.

Tbh no I don't think those things will have a major impact on this since those are all big longer term trends. There's several other indicators (like the cyclical nature of the ISM and it's potential bottoming in the next few months) that also support the implications from this chart too