In a recent AF post, I looked to see if there was upside in buying Rune Pups ordinals vs PUPS BRC-20. I outlined some very optimistic scenarios for holding a rare Rune Pup. The team has finally released the actual allocation based on Rune Pup type so we can look back with certainty now to see if buying the ordinals over the BRC-20 really provided upside.
The announced split saw that the ordinals got only 22.3% while the BRC-20 holders ended up getting 77.7%. This was a minor bump for BRC-20 holders from what was initially circulating (77%).
Of the 22.3% for Rune Pup holders, the rares got 22.3% and the commons got 77.7%.
Using this data, we can look back on the date of the original post to definitively answer the question of “Which to buy, PUPS BRC-20 or Rune Pups?”
At the time of the initial post, the approximate numbers looked like:
Using the actual allocations to the 2 types of Rune Pups, we can see how many $PUPS each Rune Pup holder will get:
From here, we can see what the equivalent price per $PUPS we paid if buying a Rune Pup:
We can also now see how many $PUPS we’d have gotten if we spent the equivalent money on the BRC-20:
Bringing it together, we can see that buying the ordinals did have upside vs buying the BRC-20, so if you are bullish $PUPS, buying the ordinal maximized upside:
At the time of posting, the spread between Rare and Common Rune Pups was ~3.9x and the ultimate split reward was ~3.7, which means that buying the Common Rune Pup had a slight advantage if buying on that date.
Interestingly, the Common Rune Pup at the moment is trading at a heavy discount vs the BRC-20 (~29% upside potential). Calculation for that are below. My understanding is that there will be a burn and claim mechanism to get $PUPS, which means that you can buy the ordinals at any point and then turn them in. The risk though is that the project is using a snapshot and airdrop instead and that they already took the snapshot at the halvening. DYOR, but if it is a burn and claim, you can determine the Rune Pup potential at any time to see if it makes sense to buy them. Since you can buy almost 5 Common for the cost of a Rare, buying those would maximize return if able to buy today and still convert to $PUPS.
