Kevin Kelly, CFA

Kevin Kelly, CFA

@KKDD

Delphi Digital

ABOUT

Co-Founder & Head of Research. Kevin’s core focus lies at the intersection of global macro trends, financial markets, and their impact on crypto/digital assets. His work is also often cited across major financial media outlets (e.g. TV, print, podcasts).

Wonder how much this has contributed to recent sell pressure.. would imagine some investors probably sold some spot SOL to participate in the auction, effectively rebuying at the discounted price (would have to be comfortable with tradeoff between the size of the discount vs. illiquidity of 4yr lockup)

Both NEAR and RNDR have continued to outperform since this announcement too (up 30-40%). Great heads up here.

For context both these levels Jason mentioned for SOL and ETH also coincide with their respective 76.4% retracement levels (the key level we talked about for BTC before it made its push to new ATHs)

The point isn't to focus on one single indicator but when you see multiple indicators line up around the same price level (e.g. SOL at $200), that's when the odds get stacked in your favor

Some price consolidation isn't atypical for BTC right after it breaks to a new ATH, so not too worried about the pullback we're seeing today

Interestingly ETH and SOL were both trading right at key retracement levels too, so if we were to see some consolidation this is a pretty natural point to have it (showed charts of these in the webinar too for reference)

Sorry not sure what the specific question is - are you asking how we can pin point when the last ATH was? Or what we expect BTC's ATH will be this cycle?

History suggests they could, but obviously none of us has a crystal ball. The point is just because meme coins have outperformed in recent weeks doesn’t mean they can’t continue to outperform (as we’ve seen in the past). In some ways these have become higher beta plays on the underlying protocol (e.g. BONK vs. SOL) — so further outperformance also depends on avoiding a big risk off move (that causes a market-wide selloff) given how volatile these names are

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"where apps compete purely on feature set and UX, rather than distribution"

Agree this has big far reaching implications. The potential of an open social graph has always excited me because it forces competition to move from the data layer to the app layer, which should lead to a creative explosion of better apps, features, and UX (flips the model on its head compared to today's "web2" incumbents)

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"Community currencies"

I also think we'll see a wave of app tokens launch too as teams try to incentivize users to use their clients > others. Also gives people a way to get exposure to (and speculate on) the future growth of new clients (which I expect will only accelerate from here)

We're definitely running a bit longer than expected, but the replay will be available for you to catch up on anything you miss (including Q&A!)

Team had too many great insights they wanted to share 😎

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I agree -- I don't think we reach some of the crazy price targets you see floating around (like $5-600K) during this next cycle but on the low end I think $125-150K is achievable (and represents a ~250-300% return from current levels)

Agreed - surprise weak inflation print + falling expectations for further rate hikes are putting pressure on the USD (and weaker dollar = good for BTC + risk assets)

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"but has managed to settle at a floor price of ~0.15 ETH"

Would also add price is often viewed as a gauge of "success" even if it's not intended to be.. that's one of the reasons I'm bullish on the FTM trend because it helps mitigate the risk of negative sentiment being projected on an brand's web3 initiative (which we've seen turn sour if price drops and early holders are underwater). The brands that can afford to do this and forgo near term revenue stand to benefit imo

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"Simply put, what crypto really needs is another shot of liquidity."

Fed liquidity bottomed earlier this year (post the March banking debacle) and has remained supportive, but hasn't materially increased that much. The bigger trend to watch - and one we've been talking about for months now - is the liquidity rebound from China...we've seen a sizable increase in liquidity injections from the PBOC over the last couple months for example. China and the US are the two biggest contributors to global liquidity, and we've shown several charts in prior reports that highlight how correlated BTC's price is with changes in the PBOC's balance sheet, so that's an important one to watch going forward...

Kevin Kelly, CFA has not authored any research reports yet.