I created a custom index on Bloomberg (unfortunately can't share the data) but you can easily create a proxy index to track Fed Liquidity here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/

Fed Total Assets - TGA - RRP

I'll add the latest carnage in crypto markets has pushed a bunch of tokens into oversold territory (e.g. WIF, SHIB, WLD, BLUR, RUNE, TIA, JTO, JUP). SOL is also on the verge too...

This is already one of my favorite reports.. can't wait to read more

Wonder how much this has contributed to recent sell pressure.. would imagine some investors probably sold some spot SOL to participate in the auction, effectively rebuying at the discounted price (would have to be comfortable with tradeoff between the size of the discount vs. illiquidity of 4yr lockup)

Yes, we actually just published it (see link below). Keen to get others thoughts too so drop in any questions/comments you have.

https://members.delphidigital.io/reports/no-pain-no-gain

Both NEAR and RNDR have continued to outperform since this announcement too (up 30-40%). Great heads up here.

For context both these levels Jason mentioned for SOL and ETH also coincide with their respective 76.4% retracement levels (the key level we talked about for BTC before it made its push to new ATHs)

The point isn't to focus on one single indicator but when you see multiple indicators line up around the same price level (e.g. SOL at $200), that's when the odds get stacked in your favor

Some price consolidation isn't atypical for BTC right after it breaks to a new ATH, so not too worried about the pullback we're seeing today

Interestingly ETH and SOL were both trading right at key retracement levels too, so if we were to see some consolidation this is a pretty natural point to have it (showed charts of these in the webinar too for reference)

Sorry not sure what the specific question is - are you asking how we can pin point when the last ATH was? Or what we expect BTC's ATH will be this cycle?

Not sure if this is what's causing AVAX to catch a bid right now (its up >30% the last two days) but looks like this is starting to get more attention

https://x.com/blknoiz06/status/1767566937825911051?s=20

History suggests they could, but obviously none of us has a crystal ball. The point is just because meme coins have outperformed in recent weeks doesn’t mean they can’t continue to outperform (as we’ve seen in the past). In some ways these have become higher beta plays on the underlying protocol (e.g. BONK vs. SOL) — so further outperformance also depends on avoiding a big risk off move (that causes a market-wide selloff) given how volatile these names are

@Rinko addressed this towards the end (appreciate the question!)

Agree this has big far reaching implications. The potential of an open social graph has always excited me because it forces competition to move from the data layer to the app layer, which should lead to a creative explosion of better apps, features, and UX (flips the model on its head compared to today's "web2" incumbents)

I also think we'll see a wave of app tokens launch too as teams try to incentivize users to use their clients > others. Also gives people a way to get exposure to (and speculate on) the future growth of new clients (which I expect will only accelerate from here)

Thanks for the great questions!

We're definitely running a bit longer than expected, but the replay will be available for you to catch up on anything you miss (including Q&A!)

Team had too many great insights they wanted to share 😎

Sorry about that. We're working to get this fixed asap.

We provided some more detail on the relationship between these metrics (and how they impact liquidity conditions) in a prior report earlier this year (link below).

We're also planning to provide a more detailed update on this topic in our Markets Year Ahead report. Happy to answer any specific questions on this topic in the meantime though!

https://members.delphidigital.io/reports/pulse-check-on-liquidity-trends#pulse-check

I agree -- I don't think we reach some of the crazy price targets you see floating around (like $5-600K) during this next cycle but on the low end I think $125-150K is achievable (and represents a ~250-300% return from current levels)

This was a fantastic call