BTC has flipped back into a MIXED regime following a 33-day Cooperation stretch, signaling a transition phase rather than a confirmed trend continuation. Historical regime behavior suggests markets typically require a sustained 20+ day return to Coo... Read more

pain pain pain pain pain.

Most crypto participants right now are bereft of hope, sending old tweets into various group chats to feel nostalgic for a past, more hopeful time when crypto’s outlook felt so sure, trailblazing, and contrarian.  The current wallowing seems less about price performance (though that has been painful aside from HY

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I was frustrated there wasn’t much data aggregation for Lighter and $LIT so I vibe coded this dashboard.   Now you can do some Lighter sleuthing – trader leaderboards, wallet PnL, volume trends, market activity.

For now the app is just hosted on vercel: https://lighter-research.vercel.app/

This product is in beta a... Read more

Regime Duration, Compression and the Statistics of Extended Cooperation

Bitcoin moves through repeatable regime states shaped by volatility, liquidity, and participant behavior. From a game theory perspective, Cooperation is less about direction, but rather it is more about what the market is setting up. These phases allow leverage to res

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I’ve been getting hammered with questions from funds and retail about Lighter over the past few weeks.

The token is down and Vlads tweets get aggressively shorted.

My read is Lighter is in a much better position than the price action suggests. The real issue is not a lack of product or talent, but a lack of transparency around tokenomics,

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Zama is leveraging its own stack for a novel sealed-bid Dutch auction public sale. The sale is for 880M ZAMA (8% of total supply), and ends tomorrow, Jan 24. Zama is the leader in the FHE space. here’s high level overview of the sale:

Sealed-bid Dutch Auction

Bidding is done using confidential tokens to keep your strategy private. We reco

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Welcome back to Market Matters, January edition.

After a quiet reset into the new year, markets have quickly shifted back into a volatility-driven regime. Tariff headlines, rising geopolitical tension and stress signals from Japan’s bond market are starting to matter more than fundamentals especially for risk assets.

In this episode, we

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One of the more interesting macro developments right now is the relationship between gold and Japan’s 10-year yield. These two assets are moving in tandem, which is not how a clean tightening cycle normally behaves. Below, I’ll explain why gold is tracking Japanese yields, why Japan is the pressure point and what this setup implies for B

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Trump’s latest push to acquire Greenland is causing risk assets to sell off globally and pushing volatility higher, with the VIX up nearly 20% as of writing. Geopolitical driven volatility, while likely to be an ongoing feature in markets as the Trump 2.0 admin embraces Monroe doctrine / Roosevelt Corollary policies, is hard to model. How

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