Summary

• Tactically, the trailing 3 month Bitcoin-Gold and Bitcoin-Nasdaq ratios still remain near the lower end of historical ranges, suggesting some short-term mean-reversion tailwinds for bitcoin to outperform gold/equities.

• Cyclically, the growth and inflation backdrop is supportive of Bitcoin & risk assets, but a low margin of safe

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Commodities Are Still in the Lead

Headlines around the Fed being probed by the DOJ have injected a fresh layer of institutional uncertainty into the macro backdrop. Regardless of how that story ultimately resolves, markets are reacting to the implication. 

That reaction is showing up clearly in commodities.

Gold, silver and platinum ar

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The Income Statement Hierarchy

There’s a misunderstanding in crypto when people talk about “revenues.”

Revenue sits at the top of the income statement and not at the bottom. This matters because there are two types of revenue:

1. Gross Revenue – Total fees collected
2. Net Revenue – Gross revenue minus cost of revenue

Cost of revenue (also c

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I’ve been watching Native for much of 2025. There hasn’t been much to do beyond mint a passport, and a high level overview can be found in my Clanker report. 

From what I can tell, the app itself is almost finished or is finished, but the state of onchain is discouraging a launch. I have seen Derek post some teasers of the app on Zora ove

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The following is a section from Delphi’s upcoming Year Ahead in Applications 2026 report, covering fomo — one of the consumer apps we’re most interested in heading into next year

@fomo_family represents another attempt to modernize onchain trading, but with a clear emphasis on delivering a Robinhood-level mobile experience rather than rel

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My correlation work shows a consistent and meaningful relationship between TOTAL3 and RUT across multiple time horizons (365, 90, 30) and that relationship matters, here’s why: The 365 day read remains firmly positive at 0.75 and has held in that zone since early 2024, which signals that both markets continue to respon... Read more

The stablecoin landscape is dominated by two players: Tether and Circle’s USDC. But issuance is moving toward becoming a standardized, low-margin infrastructure service. At the simplest level, issuing a well-collateralized stablecoin includes a standard process of:

• Custody of reserves
• Transparent accounting
• Mint & burn functions
• Legal/ c

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Quick note up front. This indicator is not mine, it is built by Julius on CT (@jv_finance). I have been following his work for a while and this one is worth paying attention to.

Now on to the chart.

The BTC to Gold ratio has slipped below the model’s lowest power-law band. That grey zone is basically the statistical basement of the entir

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Here is a recent conversation between myself and a good friend who runs a venture fund.

Me: “How are the portcos? Still doing well?”

Him: “Yeah ton of good progress across the board”

Me: “How is the env for them to raise?”

Him: “Really the only thing that matters…is that…good businesses get funding regardless of environment”

That conve

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In 2019, it was discovered that a popular South Korean reality survival show called Produce 101, where contestants competed to make it into a fan-voted idol group, was rigged. For four whole seasons, viewers would call in and collectively pay millions to vote for their favorite idols, all to find out that it was just one big grift. Fans

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