sounds like crypto twitter

thank you for the kind words! glad you liked the meme 🤝

fragmented state & fragmented comms innit

it's definitely a bit of a generational thing. i think as the robinhood demographic inherits wealth from the boomer jp morgan demographic, this attention-centric, proto-social investing behavior will only become more influential in the market

we're already seeing some interesting examples of companies leaning into this. AMC doing free popcorn for stonk holders, tesla offering stonk holders early access to the cybertruck, and palantir going out of its way to engage retail investors

i think this trend of companies realizing that retail is an important hodler constituency will only rise over time and prob shift how these co's do PR and IR comms

re: quantifying and valuing attention

this is something i really struggled with while writing the piece. i initially wanted to try and quantify + offer up some rough framework for how to think about valuations. but the truth is, i don't really have a great idea here, or at least not something i'd be comfortable acting on and putting my personal capital at risk. so, the piece erred a bit more on the side of theory than i would have liked. maybe I'll do a follow-up at some point with some more practical applications of attention-driven investing

the hard part is attention is much more subjective than, say, revenue or cash flows, which makes it harder to put 'attention' into a financial model. people have historically looked at stuff like sentiment data from socials for rough proxies. i think this stuff maybe works on shorter time horizons. but I'm always skeptical of using this as the sole justification for longer-term positions. imo the best way to play the attention game in crypto is to simply identity narratives that you think have some sorta durability (months not days) and buy coins that fit into them before the market fully catches on. dogwifhat is a good past example of this. all you had to do was see doge/shib from last cycle and bonk early this cycle and then people talking about WIF. the politifi meta is also interesting right now bc the attention there seems more durable than most other stuff

correlations in tradfi can go to 1 sometimes too lol. covid being a good example. although i do think crypto is a bit different bc the market participants just aren't as sophisticated and diverse (mostly retail and long only) as tradfi

something like that…

cool idea, I’ll bring this up w the team

the orb definitely introduces some novel centralization and trust vectors that most purely software crypto projects don't have to deal with. my view is that we will need attested sensors in the future to determine whether stuff is real or fake. these sensors could be a microphone that attests to some audio being real and not AI generated. or a camera that can attest to some footage or image being real

worldcoin's orb is an example of an attested sensor that provides signatures from a secure enclave in the device, which stores a key that cannot be extracted and can only be put in the device during its creation

for more technical nuance on how this works, I highly recommend DCBuilder's blogpost. he's the guy that built most of worldcoin's privacy stack

https://dcbuilder.mirror.xyz/myIlus8pl6SbyuUR4ufGf9OYRps8hCGqeZHNYce3i94

agreed, sybil is a huge issue. I personally think its one of the most important and valuable problems crypto can solve so I'm rooting for all the builders in this area. if you're still feeling hesitant about worldcoin, I would recommend reading vitalik's blog post. It was one of the more and balanced fair takes I've seen

I just watched minority report for the first time the other day, per your suggestion. I really liked it and can definitely see where the worldcoin comp comes in. the main difference is worldcoin doesn't know your name/address/social security number/etc. when you verify your eyeball, the only piece of info that leaves the orb is a string of numbers that's associated with your unique iris. this prevents someone from creating the same dystopic system as in the movie :)

according to my tradingview chart, the previous BTC ATH occurred on nov 10, 2021 @ $69,080 (on binance)

cosmos continues to struggle with UX in my opinion. fragmented liquidity and bridging are the main pain points. I think until they fix this, retail/new crypto users will opt to buy stuff like ETH and SOL that they have an easier time using onchain

metcalfe’s law has to start somewhere and DRiP is a vote of confidence in worldcoin’s distribution and tech

obviously an integration with facebook would be better but that’s not going to happen anytime soon. worldcoin needs to scale first

my view is that worldID will be adopted by crypto protocols first bc the sybil problem is more acute in crypto bc of the inherent financialization of the space

the tech giants have no magical solution to PoP. the most innovation I’ve seen on captchas/bot detection has come from discord. but even that will be inevitably broken by advanced AI

my thesis is that worldcoin is the clear leader in the decentralized ID space today. whether it “will be” the leader tomorrow is impossible to know

it’s possible to be bullish on a project in the long term but believe that buying a token immediately following a 4x and right before unlocks start is probably not a good idea

and fwiw at ~$90B, I would not describe WLD’s FDV as “peanuts.” esp since most is still locked supply

so the discrepancy b/w office hours and the report is mostly a timing thing

I think over a long enough time horizon the design will cater to both

If these bots indeed succeed at reducing complexity and improving UX then they should be broadly popular

In terms of GTM, I would target crypto natives first. Iterate the product w power users and establish PMF before trying to attract new-to-crypto people

just saw this on X. I feel underexposed...
https://t.co/FrPChSpn97

CC on the AF baby, let's goooo!

im not sure the vast majority of participants will get the airdrop, or at least not a material amount

over the last 6 months there's been a lot of inflows/bridging to solana. some of these new entrants prob will not get huge airdrops and may feel underexposed as a result

re: JUP beta, it's a good question and it forms the main bear case for JUP's forward returns imo. if JUP launches close to a $10B FDV it prob doesn't have that much upside left. i mean, even a 3-5x off a $10B FDV base would be insane

so ppl may look at memecoins, NFTs and even SOL itself as higher beta plays on JUP

thank you for reading!

the way i think about burner wallets is they are hot wallets that you can afford to make a mistake with. so, while its not great UX, ideal opsec is to probably use a different hot wallet for every defi protocol, esp the newer ones that will inevitably pop up fast and furious once this bull really gets going

to give a solana example, as that was the section referenced:

• download the phantom wallet app
• create account / wallet labeled "MARGINFI" - use account for all marginfi activites
• create account / wallet labeled "DRIFT" - use account for all drift activities
• create account / wallet labeled "TENSOR" - use account for all tensor activities
• etc...

that way, if you click a malicious marginfi link (note: there was just one the other day that was the first link that popped up on google search) you only use the $ that you had on marginfi and not the money you had on drift and everywhere else

obv this isn't some fool proof strategy, there's no silver bullet here. but in the context of "trying brand new defi apps" its a good mitigate to the most common skems

hope that was helpful. out of curiousity, how do you think about onchain opsec?