thanks sir!

thanks for reading 🤝

🫶

hey ip, thanks for reading and appreciate the thoughtful comment. the unlock is definitely a concern, but at this point, i think it's ~mostly priced in

i attribute most of sol's recent underperformance to this. although there's prob some memecoin fatigue + hyperliquid outflows weighing on it, too

that being said, i wouldn't worry too much about the unlock. i think the market will chew thru it pretty quickly. esp since the headline figure (~2% of circ) is unlikely to hit the market (prob ends up being more like 1%-ish)

so, i think sol's fundamentals will eventually return to driving its price action over the course of '25

🫶🏻

How so?

futardio

great poast sir

i would highly recommend joining the metadao discord

discord: https://discord.com/invite/metadao

the reason i first became interested in metadao was bc i noticed some of the smartest ppl in the solana eco talking about it. many top solana founders are active in the metadao discord - phoenix, solana labs/foundation, temporal, drift, etc. the caliber of conversation in the chat is really high

yea value accrual will come. i think probably as some sorta small taker fee. the important thing to watch here is the volume metadao proposals are doing bc that's prob the best leading indicator

https://x.com/airtightfish/status/1829274711253278740

yea the UX needs work. metadao is working with paradigm's designer on this right now. it will get better, they just need some time. this is also a totally new concept so i think there will naturally be some "how do we best present this info" type lessons the team needs to work thru

there is no value accrual for the token right now, just like 99% of crypto tokens. i think going forward there's a couple ways to think about this. 1) teams might pay some SaaS-type model for access to metadao's futarchy platform. i think this would be a bearish outcome. or 2) metadao could charge a small taker fee on every futarchic market trade. i think this would be the bullish scenario as its obv more scalable

monetizing on volume is nice too bc its partially a function of arbitrage. metadao essentially spins up parallel (futarchic) markets for tokens so as long as there's a discrepancy in price b/w the futarchic market and the normal spot market, there's an arb oppty which drives volume and could eventually fuel value accrual for the META token

also, prophet - the metadao founder - is laser focused on value accrual, more than most founders i've seen. he doesn't want meta to be "just another worthless computer coin." check out this tweet:

https://x.com/metaproph3t/status/1760135748781547985

on gnosis - my understanding is they never really tried it. they wrote a bunch of blog posts about it but were never willing to give up control. metadao is actually using futarchy into prod. they let the market decide the founders' salaries, whether they should burn 99% of the treasury, and whether they should get VC funding. they are all it on futarchy, gnosis never was

sounds like crypto twitter

thank you for the kind words! glad you liked the meme 🤝

fragmented state & fragmented comms innit

it's definitely a bit of a generational thing. i think as the robinhood demographic inherits wealth from the boomer jp morgan demographic, this attention-centric, proto-social investing behavior will only become more influential in the market

we're already seeing some interesting examples of companies leaning into this. AMC doing free popcorn for stonk holders, tesla offering stonk holders early access to the cybertruck, and palantir going out of its way to engage retail investors

i think this trend of companies realizing that retail is an important hodler constituency will only rise over time and prob shift how these co's do PR and IR comms

re: quantifying and valuing attention

this is something i really struggled with while writing the piece. i initially wanted to try and quantify + offer up some rough framework for how to think about valuations. but the truth is, i don't really have a great idea here, or at least not something i'd be comfortable acting on and putting my personal capital at risk. so, the piece erred a bit more on the side of theory than i would have liked. maybe I'll do a follow-up at some point with some more practical applications of attention-driven investing

the hard part is attention is much more subjective than, say, revenue or cash flows, which makes it harder to put 'attention' into a financial model. people have historically looked at stuff like sentiment data from socials for rough proxies. i think this stuff maybe works on shorter time horizons. but I'm always skeptical of using this as the sole justification for longer-term positions. imo the best way to play the attention game in crypto is to simply identity narratives that you think have some sorta durability (months not days) and buy coins that fit into them before the market fully catches on. dogwifhat is a good past example of this. all you had to do was see doge/shib from last cycle and bonk early this cycle and then people talking about WIF. the politifi meta is also interesting right now bc the attention there seems more durable than most other stuff

correlations in tradfi can go to 1 sometimes too lol. covid being a good example. although i do think crypto is a bit different bc the market participants just aren't as sophisticated and diverse (mostly retail and long only) as tradfi

something like that…

cool idea, I’ll bring this up w the team

the orb definitely introduces some novel centralization and trust vectors that most purely software crypto projects don't have to deal with. my view is that we will need attested sensors in the future to determine whether stuff is real or fake. these sensors could be a microphone that attests to some audio being real and not AI generated. or a camera that can attest to some footage or image being real

worldcoin's orb is an example of an attested sensor that provides signatures from a secure enclave in the device, which stores a key that cannot be extracted and can only be put in the device during its creation

for more technical nuance on how this works, I highly recommend DCBuilder's blogpost. he's the guy that built most of worldcoin's privacy stack

https://dcbuilder.mirror.xyz/myIlus8pl6SbyuUR4ufGf9OYRps8hCGqeZHNYce3i94

agreed, sybil is a huge issue. I personally think its one of the most important and valuable problems crypto can solve so I'm rooting for all the builders in this area. if you're still feeling hesitant about worldcoin, I would recommend reading vitalik's blog post. It was one of the more and balanced fair takes I've seen

I just watched minority report for the first time the other day, per your suggestion. I really liked it and can definitely see where the worldcoin comp comes in. the main difference is worldcoin doesn't know your name/address/social security number/etc. when you verify your eyeball, the only piece of info that leaves the orb is a string of numbers that's associated with your unique iris. this prevents someone from creating the same dystopic system as in the movie :)