We’ve had over a full month of what seems like once-hourly bogus headlines and constant whipsawing markets. It has been impossible to decipher noise from signal among all the tweets, press conferences, news articles, etc. We’ve won the war five tim... Read more

Disclosure: I own ZEC ZEC has been a strong outlier over the past 24 hours on the back of the Google Quantum Papers If you missed it, Google researchers along with Justin Drake and Dan Boneh released a paper stating quantum could break BTC by 2029,... Read more

Disclosure: I own LOCK Maybe under the radar, but Houdini Swap has been chosen as the Jupiter router for private swaps. ✨ Private Transfers coming soon to https://t.co/EpRiQ2MC4s pic.twitter.com/6GqFWfu35G — italo (@italoacasas)March 25, 2026 Thi... Read more

While the future of Web3 gaming, as most of you remember it, remains fairly bleak, the traditional gaming market continues to experience YoY growth. Interestingly, one high-growth-rate sector in particular has been getting a lot of attention in recen... Read more

Summary

• Recessions are regime shifts that occur when fragile conditions meet a sufficient trigger. They differ greatly from a “normal” cycle, and are critical to identify in real time as the largest hit to risk assets always occurs at the beginning of recessions.
• An honest assessment of the first few weeks of the conflict in the Persian

... Read more

TLDR

BTC at $70,521 (as of March 13 when this memo was prepared) sits 7.8% above the $65,000 level that Polymarket traders currently assign roughly a 46% probability of being touched before the end of March. 

My BTC Game Theory model’s forecast engine produces a materially different estimate. Based on the current regime configuration and

... Read more

MetaDAO has surged in popularity on the back of a horrid backdrop for token markets. Built-in token holder rights, control over the treasury, the lack of instant gratification for the team, and fair launch optics are working in MetaDAO’s favor. On t... Read more

TLDR Strategy’s STRC preferred stock is quietly building a structural demand floor under Bitcoin, funded by Income markets that does not seem to care about crypto sentiment. STRC recorded $409 million in single-day volume on March 10 while 30-day p... Read more

With all of the token vs equity talk recently I think this is a very interesting proposal by Across. They are proposing getting rid of the token + foundation model to a single equity c-corp model. There are two main motivations for this: first of all... Read more

Given everything happening in global markets and around the world, we figured a short market update video was in order.

In this call, we discuss:
– The strength of the Israeli Shekel does not match up with expectations of an extended war.
– Today’s macro backdrop is much more resilient compared with the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in

... Read more