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The Fed's Invisible Moving Target
Real GDP According to famous investor Warren Buffet, the stock market cap to GDP ratio is “probably the...The current stock marketcap-to-GDP ratio sits at 167%....To the point of not sounding redundant, we cover this and other factors such as GDP contraction, wage..., and declining GDP, implies the current market move is a bear market rally...
10 Min
Macro & Markets
Aug 2022
Not-So-Bad News is Good News
...rounds as it became clear the White House was trying to give the market an early warning of today’s GDP...Traditionally speaking, many have used these GDP contractions to signal the onset of an economic recession...Regardless of the intent, downplaying GDP contractions and their implications for the economy and markets...
11 Min
Macro & Markets
Jul 2022
The Next Frontier of the Digital Economy
...official economic readings because there’s no standardized process for tracking its contribution to GDP...GDP) are calculated; if we don’t pay for it, odds are it’s not accounted for....GDP.”...Most estimates put the digital economy’s contribution to US GDP somewhere in the 5-8% range; an updated...
6 Min
DeFi
Aug 2020
Orca Users Swell, The Web3 Nintendo, & Cronje's Crypto Future
GDP Contracts by 1.4% BREAKING: The U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter, as GDP...
6 Min
NFTs
Apr 2022
Revenge Of The Greenback
Further weakening economic data such as GDP contractions and continued hot inflation prints have added...Second-quarter GDP prints are on the horizon and will likely illustrate further economic contraction....result in the US economy officially entering into a recession as defined by 2 consecutive quarters of GDP...
8 Min
Macro & Markets
May 2022
Tracer (Mycelium) Brings Perpetual Pools to Arbitrum
Nominal GDP (NGDP) Stablecoin The original concept for the creation of Bitcoin was to detach society...An NGDP stable coin is one that “appreciates in line with nominal GDP growth estimates – ensuring that...The mechanics of this proposal leverages the Tracer factory with a GDP oracle coupled with a NGDP futures...
12 Min
Perpetual Futures
Mar 2022
ETH Outperforms BTC, Update On Macro Outlook
Earnings 27th-July / Wednesday FOMC Meeting, Meta Platforms Earnings 28th-July / Thursday Advanced GDP...Economists have cut their forecasts for YE ‘22 GDP in half since the start of the year, according to...
4 Min
Macro & Markets
Jul 2022
Out of The Frying Pan, Not Out of The Fire
The second is the release of Q2 GDP numbers on July 28....From July 26-27, the FOMC will meet, followed by Q2 GDP results the following day....Economists have cut their forecasts for YE ‘22 GDP in half since the start of the year, according to...
11 Min
Macro & Markets
Jul 2022
An Ode To Bitcoin
...it, and yet its total market value at the time was 1/12th the size of Microsoft or 1/6th the annual GDP...Bhutan’s current Bitcoin balance is worth roughly 2x their foreign reserves and nearly half their annual GDP...
12 Min
Other
Dec 2024
The Aftermath of One Big Macro Trade
Consumption The United States is a consumer-centric economy with consumption accounting for ~70% of US GDP...
6 Min
Derivatives
Oct 2020
The Policymaker Conundrum (Oct. '21 Chartbook, Part II)
Looking past this recent pickup, longer term forecasts for GDP are slumping, indicating less optimism...The dichotomy between falling GDP forecasts and higher inflation expectations increases the risk of stagflation...
10 Min
Infrastructure
Nov 2021
The Dark Night Rises - Part 1
Real GDP growth has slowed while the Citi US Economic Surprise Index just hit its lowest level in almost...Japan can’t really afford higher rates — and the country’s unsustainable fiscal path (extreme Debt/GDP...They can’t keep rates higher-for-longer forever given the size of US debt/GDP and the adverse impact...
23 Min
Macro & Markets
Jul 2024
Delphi Office Hours Call (July 27th, 2022)
...aren’t, we had that White House statement on their website where they kind of are playing down the GDP...They’re saying: Oh, historically, two negative quarters of GDP growth or two quarters of GDP contraction...Are they front running negative numbers or poor numbers that come out tomorrow in terms of GDP results...
43 Min
Macro & Markets
Jul 2022
Bullish Sentiment Flips Amid Large Liquidations
...is also set to be released, including core PCE Price Index, Initial Jobless Claims, and revised Q2 GDP...
4 Min
Macro & Markets
Aug 2022
The End Game
With U.S. national debt over $31T — more than 100% of GDP — and unfunded liabilities for programs like...they can attempt to raise more money via taxes, a solution that’s historically capped out at 20% of GDP...To restate in plain English, there’s no obvious point along the debt-to-GDP continuum where everyone...
38 Min
Macro & Markets
May 2023
Delphi Office Hours Call Ft. Ledger (September 1st, 2022)
So currently the debt of the GDP of the US is 123%....But still we were only able to get that GDP from 130 down to 120....Back then in the 70s and 80s – the  Feds GDP was only like 30% to 40%....And then I guess like today I don’t really think that’s true at all.   44:08 • Duncan With that GDP at...
54 Min
Macro & Markets
Sep 2022
U.S. Dollar Faces Major Test
Source: Bloomberg, Johns Hopkins   Similarly, consensus forecasts for 2021 GDP growth have seen a greater...
6 Min
DeFi
Jul 2020
Paul Tudor Jones on US Markets, Rates, and recent geopolitical events in the Middle East - CNBC Oct. 10th 2023
...the same time that the US fiscal position is the weakest its been since at least WWII, with debt to GDP...The United States: The US fiscal position is the weakest its been since at least WWII, with debt to GDP...Between both of these presidents, we’ve added 20% debt to GDP....To stabilize debt to GDP, we will need to find $1Tn in savings.
6 Min
Macro & Markets
Oct 2023
8 Min
DeFi
Jul 2020
When There's Blood In The Streets (Nov. '21 Chartbook)
We’ve seen analysts and economists alike lower their GDP forecasts for 2022 even as projections for inflation...strengthen when the growth outlook weakens, which is exactly what’s happened lately as forecasts for US GDP...
19 Min
Macro & Markets
Dec 2021