...enthusiasm and speculation drive BTC to a new market cycle top....The last few crypto market cycles have followed this blueprint to a T....On the surface, crypto market cycles appear rather uniform....Each of the last three business cycles has been an excellent predictor of crypto market cycles, and we...

Last cycle, Bitcoin led the market off December 2018 lows and Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) rose until the...Instead, NFTs ended up being the final gasp of the bull market. This cycle will be no different....The bear market cycle began once more, cleansing the market excess.

Welcome back to Market Musings, our weekly memo covering timely market happenings....Is the cycle over?  ...Some thoughts on the cycle — Holdings (@cmsholdings) February 5, 2025 At this point, I do not believe...the top is in, nor is the cycle over....Absent a catalyst to break markets out of their current range (either to the upside or downside), we’...

Where does that leave markets today?...As we mentioned in our most recent Market Musings, the current crypto cycle has suffered from dampened...So, is this the environment that will finally unleash the crypto market cycle that everyone has been...in crypto markets to continue....turned into a tale of two markets.

markets....We saw this last cycle with ETH and ETH memes and we are seeing it this cycle with SOL and SOL memes...Additionally, there are very big differences between this current cycle and cycles past; the interest...Last cycle we had stables grow from $5-$10bn market cap to nearly $200bn market cap at peak.

Cycles is refocusing the discussion around money to the debt side....Cycles Architecture Cycles promises private, atomic, multilateral settlement....Cycles’ Obstacles to Adoption Cycles is an undeniably powerful concept, but there are a few potential...Potential Impact Cycles offers everyone the privileges of big banks.

The core problem is that illiquid markets = inefficient markets....the market....Prediction markets do something similar for markets....Decision markets are essentially parallel markets for governance tokens....It’s safe to say MetaDAO conducted the most generous and valuable airdrop of this cycle by far.

: In the 2017 cycle, the total crypto market cap grew from ~$40B to ~$750B, an 18x....Last cycle in 2020, the market grew from ~$280B to ~$2.8T, a 10x....So far this cycle, the market has grown from a base of ~$1T to about $3.3T, just over a 3x....These are the conditions in which prior crypto market cycles thrived.

BTC Market Structure — Market Structure Shift Solidified When looking at BTC price action on the higher...For more information about low/high volume nodes, market structure, and auction market theory, check...We can look to SOL (and ETH from prior cycles) as good examples of what is likely to happen....How do prediction markets work?

Market Structure Musings While markets were certainly experiencing some excruciating pains last week,...This is very much like the market: the bigger the liquidation event, the longer it will take markets...Today we find ourselves in the middle of a bullish market cycle versus a few years ago in the middle...

This has been the first crypto cycle with interest rates at such elevated levels....This is actually one of the major differences between the current cycle and previous ones....During the Fed’s rate hike cycle (March 2022-July 2023), stablecoin market cap fell by ~$20 billion....Most of these key institutional lenders from the last cycle have since collapsed.

But fret not, as Q4 is often where most of the magic happens in bullish cycles....Unlocks Token unlocks and overall token supply continues to be an important dynamic and theme of this cycle...With markets chopping and calls for a bear markets rising, it’s time for a macro deep dive.

3xliquidated) August 7, 2024 As we noted in the Dog Days of Summer, dispersion has been a key theme of this cycle...Unlocks Token unlocks and overall token supply continues to be an important dynamic and theme of this cycle...With markets chopping and calls for a bear markets rising, it’s time for a macro deep dive....Do Prediction Markets Work?

CT has a short memory, but the market never really forgets....price action followed by swift collapse and a bear market, often characterized by 70–90% drawdowns as...And prior to this, the market was already showing confirmation of the trend – doubling in total MC in...market year hasn’t derailed the Halving Cycles Theory one bit.

Bitcoin continues to follow our market cycle playbook almost to a T — so there’s still a lot to play...Notably, in the last two major market cycles, most of Bitcoin’s returns came in year 2 or 3....cycles....In the aftermath of the 2017 market cycle, advocating for Ethereum and the EVM thesis was relatively...

China has always been important for global liquidity cycles, and by extension crypto cycles....China mattered in 2017 cycle, and again in the 2020 cycle....It will certainly play a role again in the current 2024/2025 cycle as well....If you agree with the general thesis that global liquidity cycles drive risk asset returns, the next...

If the market were to mimic the same peak-to-trough drawdown of last cycle (~93%), the total market cap...But if this cycle follows the general path of those before it, one would expect to see markets consolidate...next bull cycle....For comparison, the current bear market cycle has lasted 50 weeks so far.

Hey Delphi Community, The Macro & Markets team is back this Wednesday (8/21) from 12pm to 1pm EST...with the next installment of Market Matters....The crypto markets are teetering on a knife’s edge....Meanwhile, memecoins have reached new highs in capital extraction, exacerbating the already fragile market...of Market Matters.

...important and timely developments in the crypto market....Market Structure Musings – Range Break? What Range Break?...market presented participants with a fantastic opportunity?”...Unlocks Token unlocks and overall token supply continues to be an important dynamic and theme of this cycle...

Hey Delphi Community, Join the Macro & Markets team this Wednesday (7/17) from 11am ET – 12PM ET...for the next Market Matters!...Crypto markets have been in a rough spot over the last month, with BTC breaking through multi month range...With markets chopping and calls for a bear markets rising, it’s time to dig in.