April 14th touch probabilities // BTC price when generated: $74,171

Since April 10th:
> $80k 14D touch 24% -> 33%
> $70k 14D touch 65% -> 46%

GT model shifted constructive, $75k = magnet at 77% on 14D, upside tilt firmer but 2 way risk still being priced in.

The 4 day shift is the signal here, $80k 14D touch jumped 9pp while $70

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12 months ago, the digital asset secondary market was token dominated, with a ratio of nearly 70% tokens / 30% equity opportunities. That ratio has now inverted. This isn’t cyclical rotation, but rather a structural re-rating of how the market values access to private companies at the intersection of crypto and tech. The numbers tell the

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TGA just rolled over hard, down 11.7% to $748B from the ~$905B peak and the rolling correlation with BTC is sitting at -0.57 / -0.32 / -0.56 across 30/90/365d windows

All 3 windows agreeing negative means the liquidity relationship is live and tight – TGA rising drains reserves out of the system and pressures BTC, TGA falling does the oppo

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This morning’s PCE data confirms the US consumer was already softening back in February before the Iran war even kicked off. Headline inflation came in largely in line, but the more important signal is income and spending drifting lower. We’ve been f... Read more

last hivemind on the empire feed (with new host @Kevin_Kelly_II)

we’re bringing it home to delphi media moving forward. thanks to bw for everything over the past year, links for new feed below:https://t.co/Pe8cC8wuJKhttps://t.co/hYx8skOwrxhttps://t.co/ZWOHycKmLv https://t.co/OmnLs8PRP9

— ceteris (@ceterispar1bus)
April 9,

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TLDR The BTC Game Theory model flipped into a fresh Cooperation regime on March 31. By Day 2, CPS had already cleared the 0.57 durability baseline, something that typically takes weeks and has never happened this early across 34 episodes. As of Day... Read more

Is The Iran War Setting Up A Recession? https://t.co/1UiBuMqhIZ — Coinage ♻️ (@coinage_media) April 8, 2026 I went on Coinage today to discuss our recent An honest conversation about the R word report. Good timing with the ceasefire announcement…... Read more

Yesterday Drift, a perpetual exchange protocol on Solana, was exploited for over $250M. The method of the attack was not a smart contract exploit but rather a social engineering/phishing like the big Bybit one. A short tl;dr is below. This really su... Read more

We’ve had over a full month of what seems like once-hourly bogus headlines and constant whipsawing markets. It has been impossible to decipher noise from signal among all the tweets, press conferences, news articles, etc. We’ve won the war five tim... Read more

Disclosure: I own ZEC ZEC has been a strong outlier over the past 24 hours on the back of the Google Quantum Papers If you missed it, Google researchers along with Justin Drake and Dan Boneh released a paper stating quantum could break BTC by 2029,... Read more