Regime Duration, Compression and the Statistics of Extended Cooperation

Bitcoin moves through repeatable regime states shaped by volatility, liquidity, and participant behavior. From a game theory perspective, Cooperation is less about direction, but rather it is more about what the market is setting up. These phases allow leverage to res

I’ve been getting hammered with questions from funds and retail about Lighter over the past few weeks.

The token is down and Vlads tweets get aggressively shorted.

My read is Lighter is in a much better position than the price action suggests. The real issue is not a lack of product or talent, but a lack of transparency around tokenomics,

Zama is leveraging its own stack for a novel sealed-bid Dutch auction public sale. The sale is for 880M ZAMA (8% of total supply), and ends tomorrow, Jan 24. Zama is the leader in the FHE space. here’s high level overview of the sale:

Sealed-bid Dutch Auction

Bidding is done using confidential tokens to keep your strategy private. We reco

Welcome back to Market Matters, January edition.

After a quiet reset into the new year, markets have quickly shifted back into a volatility-driven regime. Tariff headlines, rising geopolitical tension and stress signals from Japan’s bond market are starting to matter more than fundamentals especially for risk assets.

In this episode, we

One of the more interesting macro developments right now is the relationship between gold and Japan’s 10-year yield. These two assets are moving in tandem, which is not how a clean tightening cycle normally behaves. Below, I’ll explain why gold is tracking Japanese yields, why Japan is the pressure point and what this setup implies for B

Trump’s latest push to acquire Greenland is causing risk assets to sell off globally and pushing volatility higher, with the VIX up nearly 20% as of writing. Geopolitical driven volatility, while likely to be an ongoing feature in markets as the Trump 2.0 admin embraces Monroe doctrine / Roosevelt Corollary policies, is hard to model. How

Summary

• Tactically, the trailing 3 month Bitcoin-Gold and Bitcoin-Nasdaq ratios still remain near the lower end of historical ranges, suggesting some short-term mean-reversion tailwinds for bitcoin to outperform gold/equities.

• Cyclically, the growth and inflation backdrop is supportive of Bitcoin & risk assets, but a low margin of safe

Commodities Are Still in the Lead

Headlines around the Fed being probed by the DOJ have injected a fresh layer of institutional uncertainty into the macro backdrop. Regardless of how that story ultimately resolves, markets are reacting to the implication. 

That reaction is showing up clearly in commodities.

Gold, silver and platinum ar

The Income Statement Hierarchy

There’s a misunderstanding in crypto when people talk about “revenues.”

Revenue sits at the top of the income statement and not at the bottom. This matters because there are two types of revenue:

1. Gross Revenue – Total fees collected
2. Net Revenue – Gross revenue minus cost of revenue

Cost of revenue (also c