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Quarter in Review, Macro Correlations, and HODL Strength
Risk On, Risk Off BTC’s correlation to the S&P 500 (SPX) dwindled this month as the index rallied...But as BTC slowed down, its correlation to the SPX slowed, eventually flipping negative, and its correlation...Because gold and stocks have poor correlation, using BTC’s correlation to each asset as a means of gauging...
3 Min
Macro & Markets
Jul 2021
Bitcoin Rundown: Market Indecision, Legacy Correlations, And a Lightning Boost
Bitcoin’s Legacy Correlations Bitcoin is often touted as an uncorrelated asset relative to conventional...Over the long-term, this holds true, but in the short-to-medium term, correlations tend to fluctuate...Despite its “digital gold” narrative, the correlation between BTC and physical gold also tends to ebb...
4 Min
Channels
Jul 2021
ETH/BTC Correlation, Sentiment Reversals, and Flight to ETH DeFi
ETH/BTC Correlation is Peaking ETH’s one-month correlation to BTC has risen sharply over the past month...ETH tends to trade with high correlation to BTC during risk-off periods, while setting its own tone when...Notably, ETH/BTC correlation tends to peak around 90% and BTC outperforms ETH during this period.
3 Min
DeFi
Jun 2021
Bitcoin's Market Structure, Correlation to Gold, and Miner Revenue Mix
BTC and Gold’s Relationship Back in 2019, BTC’s correlation to gold propelled the narrative that BTC...
3 Min
Infrastructure
Jun 2021
SPX Correlations, Pocket & GMX Break Out, CowSwap Volume Surges
BTC Correlation with S&P500 Soars Over the past month, the correlation between BTC and SPX has...BTC has a historically low correlation with the equity markets....As institutional adoption in BTC increases, we will likely see an even higher correlation in the future...
3 Min
Macro & Markets
Jan 2022
Bitcoin vs Banks: The Correlation That Shouldn't Exist (But Does)
Over the past five years, Bitcoin has exhibited a structural shift in its macro correlation profile....But while the correlation may reflect market structure, the underlying fundamentals are diverging....From Tech Proxy to Bank Proxy: The Correlation Shift The data bears this out....The correlation held: tightening hurts both.
10 Min
Macro & Markets
Jul 2025
It's All Just Volatility
“In Times Of Crisis, Correlations Go To 1” Quarter 2 draws to a horrendous close as the seemingly ever-worsening...There is a very common saying in traditional finance… in a time of crisis, correlations trend towards...We can immediately notice a very strong correlation between the SPY and BTC price over this longer-term...
9 Min
Macro & Markets
Jun 2022
Bitcoin - Back From the Future
As such, we will be watching the following correlations closely....As you can see from the charts above, below, and later in the correlation matrix, Bitcoin strongly correlates...Bitcoin and gold are positively correlated at around .64....We think these correlations may increase....a negative correlation — against both VFH and KRE.
17 Min
Layer 1 / L1
May 2023
The Roblox IPO Filing & Crypto Sandboxes
Nonfungible.com As we can see, appetite for blockchain-based virtual worlds appears to be strongly correlated...Appetite for blockchain-based virtual worlds appears to be strongly correlated across major peers.
8 Min
Virtual Real Estate
Nov 2020
The Beginning of the Journey for the Aave Safety Module
Low correlation with AAVE is needed because, as correlation rises, real diversification from adding a...In other words, adding highly correlated assets to the SM would virtually just mean keeping it 100% in...First, let’s consider ETH and AAVE correlation....The following graph shows a plot of the logarithmic return correlation between these two assets.
8 Min
DeFi
Dec 2020
One Big Macro Trade - Macro Monthly
As a result, elevated intermarket correlations between major asset classes puts financial markets on...Elevated intermarket correlations between major asset classes puts financial markets on fragile ground...
2 Min
Asset Management
Sep 2020
An Update on DeFi Markets
Zooming into the state of Ethereum’s DeFi assets, there are fairly strong correlations across the board...Notably, their correlation to ETH is extremely weak, and this is because we are measuring YTD correlation...DEFIPERP also has strong correlation to DeFi prices despite not being an accurate benchmark anymore.
8 Min
Asset Management
Sep 2021
The Great Decoupling: Perception vs. Reality
The crypto market in general, however, is correlated to some of the biggest macroeconomic factors that...The intramarket correlation – which measures the average correlation between each unique pair in the...We can see when correlations strengthen, BTC tends to outperform ETH....Since late June, we’ve seen correlations abate a bit as return dispersion widened.
11 Min
Global Macro Themes
Aug 2022
Merge Week Is Finally Here
It’s clear the two have a strong symbiotic relationship and have maintained a 93% correlation for the...Interestingly, this relationship exhibits the same correlation of 93%....However, if we broaden the time horizon to 24 months, the correlation sinks to 67%....In turn, a tighter correlation between the two may be experienced moving forward.
4 Min
Macro & Markets
Sep 2022
Fan Tokens: A New Revenue Stream For Teams Selling Influence To Fans
Correlation between select fan tokens was fairly strong over the last four months, with the exception...These tokens have also exhibited weak correlations to ETH and CHZ, outperforming the two since July....Due to those factors, perhaps you would expect to see more variation in price and less correlation.
10 Min
Sports
Oct 2021
Uniswap's Fee Switch
LPs assume more risk in non-correlated pairs like ETH/DAI and therefore opt for higher-fee pools....LPs take on minimal risk in correlated pairs like USDC/DAI, which tend to use the lower fee tier of 0.05%...A few of the key takeaways include: Average fee % and volume have a strong negative correlation Low...
11 Min
DeFi
Apr 2023
Bitcoin vs. Stocks: The Great Decoupling
Source: Bloomberg, CME Over longer time periods, BTC has exhibited little to no correlation...I do, however, foresee stronger, more consistent correlations emerging as this space matures....Meanwhile, the correlation between BTC and stocks has been strong in recent weeks as expectations for...
4 Min
DeFi
Jul 2020
Wake Me Up When September Ends
The two have a strong symbiotic relationship given that the correlation between the two is 93%, over...Interestingly enough, this relationship exhibits the same correlation of 93% that the USD Liquidity Index...However, if we broaden the time horizon to 24 months, the correlation between the two sinks to 67%.
10 Min
Macro & Markets
Sep 2022
Post-Merge Fallout: A Closer Look Into Price and Issuance
And despite strong evidence suggesting crypto markets are still highly correlated with their legacy counterparts...In fact, the two share a strong correlation of .75, since Sept-2020....A clear inverse correlation can be observed between the two.
9 Min
Macro & Markets
Sep 2022