Last week’s piece left PUMP mid re-rate and since then the move extended – mcap is up 176% off the June low and the multiple is back at 2.8x, which puts it right at the bottom edge of the 2.6x to 4.4x band it lived in for its first 6 months of trading. That band broke in February on a pure price selloff while revenue printed its best gros

Summary

• The long end of the curve is rallying after the Treasury announced it will at least double the size of its long-end liquidity support buybacks, from $2bn to at least $4bn per operation, targeting the 10-20y and 20-30y sectors starting September 9.  

• The Treasury is buying back long-dated coupons and funding it with bills, which

I joined the Etherfi’s investor call today and am quite bulled up. The gap between crypto neobank and full financial service superapp is still there, but today’s update is a clean step towards closing it.

They are shipping some insane updates, quick rundown of the ones i care the most about:

1) Account Balance Protection

Etherfi is roll

TLDR

There’s a question I keep coming back to when screening protocols: if a business earns your entire investment back in under 2 years of revenue, what’s stopping you from buying it? The answer is almost never the revenue itself. It’s whether you believe that revenue survives.

That’s what the xRev multiple (market cap divided by annua

Grayscale recently published a piece arguing that vaults will be the next crypto innovation to break into traditional finance, following stablecoins, tokenized assets, and perps. Their comparison was to CLOs. Both CLOs and vaults pool investor capital into managed portfolios and pay out yield generated by the assets. The difference is tha

Summary

• The cyclical macro outlook is still “risk-on”. Our US growth leading indicator continues to trend higher and more than half of global growth leading inputs we track are now improving QoQ. Inflation leading indicators are also rolling over. 

• The main macro headwind remains the lagged impact from tightening monetary policy + furt

The AI-designed drug pipeline has grown to more than 170 in clinical development today, with 15-20 expected to reach pivotal trials this year. 

AI doesn’t have to improve clinical success rates for a bull case to play out in the AI-aligned biotechs. If it makes shots on goal cheaper by reducing the time and cost of identifying a preclinic

TLDR

PONS runs ~78% of all token launches on Robinhood Chain, 2 weeks after the previous incumbent NOXA walked away.

The protocol is doing $170-180k/day in ETH revenue with ~24 cents of every fee dollar buying and burning PONS, and there’s no VC / team allocation or unlock overhang – mcap = FDV. It trades at ~0.62x annualized r

The TAM for agents is massive, and it doesn’t rely on futuristic workflows or new behaviors. Agents will tackle the most dreaded aspects of our daily lives. Two examples:

• Passive shopping: you want an outdoor freezer, but only if it’s a great deal. Today that means manually checking retailers online and stopping by outlet stores every fe

Summary

• The thing to be bearish on is positioning, not the cycle. Our cyclical macro regime is still risk-on, US growth leading indicators are resilient, recession probabilities are low, and equity breadth is broadening. None of that looks like a major top.

• What IS stretched is speculation itself: record leveraged ETF exposure, rec