How restrictive will the Fed be? It all comes down to inflation....The Fed stating that they will be fully data-dependent moving forward is a double-edged sword....At the end of the day, the Fed is still facing an inflation monster....If not, the Fed will be forced to break something.

“As the odds of Fed rate hikes diminished today and Bitcoin prices stabilized, we saw institutional flow...foresee this relationship holding strong; we’ll be watching to see how markets react following the Fed..., coinciding with a small pullback in hawkish market expectations the last few days (as measured by Fed...

As mentioned in our note published on Tuesday evening, “Key Trends as Markets Seem Fed Up”, Bitcoin found...Ahead of this week’s Fed meeting, we emphasized an important rule of thumb in trading: “previous resistance...Price topped out as high as $38.9K for a very brief moment before falling back towards $37.4K as Fed...

Powell himself suggested raising rates and reducing the Fed’s balance sheet is a solution to higher prices...This means Fed officials acknowledge financial conditions are likely to tighten and economic growth is...At the end of the day, we can bicker all we want about what we think the Fed should do, but all that...

Spark Volatility US equity markets opened higher today, recovering from yesterday’s dip incited by Fed...This doesn’t mean the Fed will stop expanding its balance sheet, but rather it implies an acceleration...The Fed will reduce its asset purchases from $120B to $105B this month, and Powell’s recent comments...

RRP is once again the most attractive option for “risk free” income-generating USD assets after the Fed...

...government securities to back the majority of loans globally leads to one logical outcome: Since the Fed...

...decree, he will weigh two competing forces: the deflation emanating from the banking sector and the Fed...To be clear, the Fed is now conducting quantitative easing (QE) under another guise....Investors will also be keying in on the Fed’s plans for future rate hikes....Here, the Fed finds itself comically constrained by yet another contradiction.

The historic drop in US 2-year Treasury yields has many cheering for a Fed pivot, but be careful what...History shows that equities can perform quite poorly in the immediate aftermath of a Fed pivot.”...Uncertainty over additional fallout in the banking sector has also caused a huge repricing in fed fund...

...wil230519 And it seems like those questions have never really been revisited since… In fact, it seems the Fed...With Core PCE at roughly double the Fed’s target, and CPI levels still very much elevated from Fed targets...Given the Fed’s comments during this economic cycle, I can’t help but think back to one of my favorite...

The market is signaling Fed policy is too tight....Yields on 2yr US Treasuries have fallen below the Fed funds rate, similar to what we saw back in late...2018 and early 2019 when the Fed paused their last hiking cycle....2018 and early 2019 when the Fed paused their las...

But we’ve been watching this trend closely as the bond market seems to be calling the Fed’s bluff.

One thing I’ve been watching closely is the Fed’s overnight reverse repo (ON RRP) program....The chart below overlays these shifts – red lines mark RRP inflows (liquidity parking at the Fed, coinciding...with BTC weakness), and green lines mark RRP outflows (liquidity leaving the Fed, coinciding with BTC...

Risk Assets Pullback on Hawkish Fed Minutes December’s Fed meeting minutes released yesterday pointed...Members of FOMC also expressed interest in reducing the size of  the Fed’s $8.7T balance sheet sooner...Risk Assets Pullback on Hawkish Fed Minutes December’s Fed meeting minutes released yesterday pointed...

Crypto Rebounds After FOMC Comments Crypto assets rebounded after Fed Chariman Powell’s speech yesterday...were jittery in the days leading up to the FOMC meeting, likely in preparation for an overly hawkish Fed...Crypto Rebounds After FOMC Comments Crypto assets rebounded after Fed Chariman Powell’s speech yesterday...

...a pivotal moment in the Fed’s fight versus inflation....However, for a conceivable Fed pivot to actually be on the table, inflation needs to be tamed....Fed Pivot? Where are we headed?...The likelihood that the Fed doesn’t hike by at least 50bps in September is pretty low....This would allow the Fed to refocus on maintaining the other side of its mandate too.

But then the Fed started hiking rates…aggressively....We’ve seen a surge in borrowing from the Fed’s discount window — loans from the Fed increased by over...One thing the Fed could do to ease some pressure would be to cut interest rates....Instead, the Fed is allowing banks to borrow against the assets they hold....Fed will have to pivot eventually.

This makes it increasingly difficult for the Fed to remove themselves from the equation unless they’re...The level at which the Fed draws the line on bond yields is still uncertain and Powell & Co. have...If foreign and private demand falls short of new supply, the Fed will be forced to buy more bonds if...

...reflection of the Jackson Hole speech, Jerome Powell spent 8 minutes reiterating the core stance that the Fed...recent bear market rally was at least fueled in part by market participants trying to front-run the Fed...Market participants who have been leaning towards an early Fed pivot (potentially as early as the September...

At the time, we noted this was “largely driven by China’s PBoC and, to a lesser extent, the Fed” and...The driver was largely an increase in bank reserves as banks began utilizing the Fed’s lending programs...All the while, the Fed continues to let its Treasury holdings roll off its balance sheet.