How restrictive will the Fed be? It all comes down to inflation....The Fed stating that they will be fully data-dependent moving forward is a double-edged sword....At the end of the day, the Fed is still facing an inflation monster....If not, the Fed will be forced to break something.

“As the odds of Fed rate hikes diminished today and Bitcoin prices stabilized, we saw institutional flow...foresee this relationship holding strong; we’ll be watching to see how markets react following the Fed..., coinciding with a small pullback in hawkish market expectations the last few days (as measured by Fed...

As mentioned in our note published on Tuesday evening, “Key Trends as Markets Seem Fed Up”, Bitcoin found...Ahead of this week’s Fed meeting, we emphasized an important rule of thumb in trading: “previous resistance...Price topped out as high as $38.9K for a very brief moment before falling back towards $37.4K as Fed...

Powell himself suggested raising rates and reducing the Fed’s balance sheet is a solution to higher prices...This means Fed officials acknowledge financial conditions are likely to tighten and economic growth is...At the end of the day, we can bicker all we want about what we think the Fed should do, but all that...

Spark Volatility US equity markets opened higher today, recovering from yesterday’s dip incited by Fed...This doesn’t mean the Fed will stop expanding its balance sheet, but rather it implies an acceleration...The Fed will reduce its asset purchases from $120B to $105B this month, and Powell’s recent comments...

Risk Assets Pullback on Hawkish Fed Minutes December’s Fed meeting minutes released yesterday pointed...Members of FOMC also expressed interest in reducing the size of  the Fed’s $8.7T balance sheet sooner...Risk Assets Pullback on Hawkish Fed Minutes December’s Fed meeting minutes released yesterday pointed...

I could also show you a bunch of other charts that make the argument the Fed should stay the current...The Fed’s Window In many ways, the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place...., which we’d expect to follow suit once the Fed gives them the green light....And the Fed may soon have a credible out to change its stance.

But then the Fed started hiking rates…aggressively....We’ve seen a surge in borrowing from the Fed’s discount window — loans from the Fed increased by over...One thing the Fed could do to ease some pressure would be to cut interest rates....Instead, the Fed is allowing banks to borrow against the assets they hold....Fed will have to pivot eventually.

Rate Cuts Looming The Fed chose not to cut rates at their June FOMC meeting, citing both steady economic...But fed fund futures are putting more weight on cuts starting by September, which has given BTC some...The latest Fed minutes indicate “most Fed officials said they expect rate cuts will be appropriate later...

At the time, we noted this was “largely driven by China’s PBoC and, to a lesser extent, the Fed” and...The driver was largely an increase in bank reserves as banks began utilizing the Fed’s lending programs...All the while, the Fed continues to let its Treasury holdings roll off its balance sheet.

Crypto Rebounds After FOMC Comments Crypto assets rebounded after Fed Chariman Powell’s speech yesterday...were jittery in the days leading up to the FOMC meeting, likely in preparation for an overly hawkish Fed...Crypto Rebounds After FOMC Comments Crypto assets rebounded after Fed Chariman Powell’s speech yesterday...

Fed Liquidity Woes One of the most notable headwinds is a local top in central bank liquidity....This is in contrast to the trend that’s defined the last 6-8 months, which the Fed and PBOC have led....The Fed is still allowing USTs to roll off its balance sheet....Any near-term pullback in Fed liquidity increases the risk of a more broad market pullback.

...a pivotal moment in the Fed’s fight versus inflation....However, for a conceivable Fed pivot to actually be on the table, inflation needs to be tamed....Fed Pivot? Where are we headed?...The likelihood that the Fed doesn’t hike by at least 50bps in September is pretty low....This would allow the Fed to refocus on maintaining the other side of its mandate too.

However, too much reassurance could easily be interpreted as the Fed going soft....Mechanically, the Fed’s current monetary policy is also problematic....-based trade group — and a former Fed staffer....But, if that were the case, then it would be odd for the Fed to hike first....Jim Bianco We believe the Fed holds all the cards.

...further cooling in labor market conditions. – Jerome Powell, Jackson Hole 2024 On the other hand, the Fed...Given the Fed’s dual mandate, Powell concluded:: The time has come for policy to adjust. – Jerome Powell..., Jackson Hole 2024 These are strong words from the FOMC, signaling that the Fed is beginning to guide...

...reflection of the Jackson Hole speech, Jerome Powell spent 8 minutes reiterating the core stance that the Fed...recent bear market rally was at least fueled in part by market participants trying to front-run the Fed...Market participants who have been leaning towards an early Fed pivot (potentially as early as the September...

Highlights included: CPI Breakdown and Macro Recap (01:20) BTC Chart Analysis (05:40) When Will the Fed...(17:33) Is the Fed Behind or Ahead of the Curve?

This repositioning for a ‘less dovish’ Fed in the near term is evidenced by the pick up in UST yields...This comes on the heels of the Fed’s confirmation that it will not be renewing the Bank Term Funding...Put simply, banks have been able to borrow from the Fed at lower rates and park that cash in reserve...when the Fed will start cutting rates.

...does, let’s say fed does cut rates 125 or 150 beps....And so it brings back in, okay, the fed is likely at this point, the fed will cut rates in September,...The fed, if the fed’s hand gets forced, that’s the reason why. [00:22:38] Jason Pagoulatos: Right....The market is, but the feds, the fed, yeah, but the fed follows the market.

For starters, the market has gone from uber bullish Fed rate cuts to uber conservative, real quick....Three months ago, Fed fund futures were pricing 5-6 cuts in 2025. Now, it’s less than 2.  ...The US 10yr yield has risen over 100bps since the Fed started cutting rates in September.