Most Bitcoin capital destruction occurs not at entry but when coordination fractures and investors fail to recognize the shift. This report introduces a behavioral regime classifier that identifies wh...

Stablecoins have crossed the chasm that once differentiated them as simply a form of digital fiat into what could now be considered the rails to a new financial infrastructure for the institutional wo...

The common critique of equity perps is that funding is expensive, order books are thin, and mark-to-underlying spreads are noisy. Using 22,672 hourly observations across 13 equity perps on Hyperliquid...

Welcome back to Market Matters, February edition....

Most crypto traders treat conviction as a single-name bet, long HYPE and absorb whatever the market throws at you. Over ~1 year of data, that meant 104% annualized volatility, a -64% max drawdown, and...

Bitcoin was supposed to be freedom money. What we got was a Blackrock ETF. Every transaction visible forever. Every balance trackable. Nearly 9% of supply sitting in ETFs and government treasuries....

2025 has been an exceptional year for stablecoins. So much so, that our thesis is that stablecoins will play a huge role on the infrastructural level going into the new year. From cross-border payment...

Crypto is closer than ever to a breakout consumer app. This report reflects the industry’s shift in focus, discussing the applications poised to onboard the masses....

The Year Ahead for Markets 2026: After two years defined by liquidity withdrawal and elevated policy rates, 2026 marks a critical inflection point. This report explores how the macro regime is shiftin...

President Trump’s August 2025 Executive Order directing the Department of Labor (DOL) to expand 401(k) access to alternative assets could reshape Bitcoin’s demand structure more profoundly than ETFs e...

The Macro & Market chartbook examines many of the key macro & market themes taking place throughout the course of the year. The chartbook publication aims to marry the top down macro-liquidity...

While CT chases the next perps protocol, traditional options just printed their 6th consecutive record year—processing $185B in July alone. Yet crypto options remain dominated by a single CEX (Deribit...

After nearly an entire decade, the crypto space is coming full circle back to the age-old narrative of facilitating cross-border payments and onboarding the institutions. From the proliferation of sta...

Circle and Tether's moat is eroding. As distribution trumps network effects and white-label providers commoditize issuance, chains and apps are internalizing the yield that once flowed to incumbents,...

Every system for discovering truth - science, journalism, capital markets- all run on incentives. Prediction markets make those incentives explicit....

This is not a technical explainer, it’s an EV-weighted, liquid allocation framework for positioning ahead of two potential Solana perp DEX winners. Bullet is the more proven, lower-variance, closer-to...

In this update, we revisit Shuffle ($SHFL), one of crypto’s most cash-generative businesses. Since our original report in July, the project has delivered ~45% revenue growth, consistent lottery engage...

Paradex represents a high-conviction bet on a fundamentally different approach to building an exchange. It’s not the easiest path and is far from consensus. Ultimately, my thesis is that we see a zero...

This chartbook examines many of the key macro & market themes that has taken place so far throughout the year. We examine the short term outlook for risk, marry it to our longer term secular marke...

Mantle Network has grown from its beginnings as BitDAO into Mantle 2.0, an Ethereum Layer 2 now closely aligned with Bybit. Built with a modular design, Mantle positions itself as the liquidity chain,...