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Marcus Wu
Marcus Wu

Hope, Quantified: When Sentiment Snaps Back, So Does BTC


This post outlines the performance of a backtested breakout setup built around the Hope Metric and R² divergence framework.

The goal is to quantify how BTC typically behaves after periods of emotional dislocation – defined by sustained low R² values, followed by a sharp re-alignment between sentiment and price. The setup captures wh

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14th May 2025

Yapster: Sleeping Giant of the Internet Capital Markets Meta?

Internet capital markets (ICM) is the new narrative taking CT by storm. To me, it seems like a pseudo-intellectual buzzword salad narrative that is intended to imbue the Solana trenches with validity. Nonetheless, it appears to have legs, and there are some good threads that have explained the narrative here and here. The ICM tagline is

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Hunter Solaire
Hunter Solaire

Initia VIP: $300m in Token Rewards

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I’ll admit it up front. I hadn’t been paying much attention to Initia until recently.

When Facundo dropped his deep dive on their approach to appchains, I skimmed it, became somewhat curious, but ultimately moved on fairly quickly. It wasn’t until I saw Delphi listed as a leading validator and realized many of the leading rollups were

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13th May 2025

zkP2P V2: Consumer-Ready zkTLS in Prod

We briefly covered zkP2P in The Inefficient Market Hypothesis. It uses zkEmail to build a trustless, non-KYC, peer-to-peer on/offramp marketplace. It does so by matching on-rampers with off-rampers with an orderbook-like interface, facilitating fiat payment on fintech apps like Venmo and Cashapp, and using the payment confirm email to unl

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12th May 2025

Marcus Wu
Marcus Wu

Hope Metric : Macro Signal Monday (05-12-2025)

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Macro Signal Monday sets the tone for BTC capital flows at the start of the week. Follow along each Monday for the full Hope Metric signal breakdown and forward-looking capital flow context for BTC.

Today’s Hope Metric Score: 59.5
Sentiment Regime:
Neutral (Top of Range)

Sentiment is stabilizing with a bullish tilt. The market is pois

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Keeta Network - Vaporware or The Next Big L1?

TLDR:
Keeta is quietly building what most L1s promise but never ship: native compliance, seamless cross-chain value transfer, and institutional-grade infra. It’s a bold vision and $KTA remains an under-the-radar bet on that future. But while the architecture looks promising, it’s still early days, and Keeta has a lot to prove before it c

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Jason Pagoulatos
Jason Pagoulatos

Up Up & Away? - Market Update 5/12/2025

As promised – yet another weekly market update video. Last week was indeed a big week. BTC is now trading at range highs near $104K with ETH well above $2K for the first time in many months. Many alts have put in monstrous moves as well. Is risk appetite finally back? Where are markets heading from here?

If you have any questions, pleas

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9th May 2025

Marcus Wu
Marcus Wu

Still Falling Upwards

Quick update since the last HM memo “Falling Upwards” (see linked post below).

👉 TLDR: We’ve gotten the upside breakout from the divergences we were tracking in Falling Upwards. While the broader setup remains constructive, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a short-term pullback or retest given the speed of this move. Near-term upside resist

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Simon Shockey
Simon Shockey

Positioning Early: Kittenswap, Hyperswap and the HyperEVM DeFi Opportunity

The HyperEVM is still in its early days — with no major tokens TGE’d yet — now’s the time to look for asymmetric farming opportunities. Not just for yield, but for points, governance power, and exposure to the protocols best positioned to ride Hyperliquid’s next leg of growth.

The top two DEXs by TVL on the HyperEVM today are Hyper

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Prasad Mahadik
Prasad Mahadik

Beyond Latency: Solana, Ethereum and Hyperliquid Competing on a New Front

Latency has long been considered as one of the most important factors affecting the market makers. Lower latency means faster responsiveness to off-chain sources where price discovery happens. Latency affects LVR that LPs lose for providing liquidity to AMMs. Higher latency can lead to greater price drift, resulting in increased LP losse

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