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BTC Top Signal Update
View the interactive Top Signal Dashboard here. Delphi’s Bitcoin Top Signal, which measures the ‘top-like’ conditions of Bitcoin, has been fairly flatlined in 2025; we’ve been in an intensity range o...
1 Min
Macro & Markets
Jun 2025
BTC = f(Liquidity)^n
...thinking a lot about how Bitcoin behaves across macro regimes, and I keep coming back to one core view: 👉 BTC...To put it simply, I am seeing BTC as a function of liquidity in the market....BTC = f(Liquidity)ⁿ, where ⁿ = rate of change of liquidity When liquidity moves slowly, BTC moves....When liquidity accelerates, BTC rips.
3 Min
Macro & Markets
Apr 2025
Hope, Quantified: When Sentiment Snaps Back, So Does BTC
The goal is to quantify how BTC typically behaves after periods of emotional dislocation – defined by...Across 7 triggers, BTC saw a median return of +6.2% by Day 5, with 86% finishing green....Adding a trend filter (BTC above 1D 20SMA) lifts Sharpe from 0.82 to 1.33, though that subset includes...The goal is to quantify how BTC typically behaves after periods of emo...
7 Min
Macro & Markets
May 2025
Looks Like BTC is Back on the Menu
...been recording seismic activity in our Top Signal for a few weeks now, and are now seeing the price of BTC...As I highlighted the other day in another AF post, the alignment of BTC price action with Global M2 (...The situation for the rolling 30-day returns of BTC has materially improved from earlier this year as...
1 Min
Macro & Markets
Apr 2025
An Onchain BTC revival: Oyl and Alkanes Ecosystem
...indexer frBTC: a fully reserved wrapped bitcoin Native AMM (Currently under development): Will trade BTC...you first for Diesel airdrops Conclusion Bitcoin is simply dominating crypto right now, most alt/btc...pairs look horrendous and as BTC dominance only continues to trend upwards developers/builders will...
4 Min
DeFi
Apr 2025
Mondays Have Been Risk-On for BTC
Just a quick observation that over the past four weeks, Mondays have consistently been risk-on for Bitcoin. There are still a few hours left before the close, but should we remain above $83,600.82 du...
1 Min
Macro & Markets
Apr 2025
Two [BTC] Roads Diverged In a Yellow Wood
We are entering a rare four-day stretch where the mean and median returns for BTC in April are nearly...
1 Min
Macro & Markets
Apr 2025
To Liquidity and Beyond - 6 charts that explain why BTC is coiled for a breakout
Once that pressure resolves to the upside, BTC will not move slowly. 1....Until it gives way, BTC remains “capped”. But the signal is not bearish either....If and when this level breaks, the window for BTC to expand opens up quickly. 2....BTC vs Gold: Structural Trend Intact BTC/Gold remains one of the cleanest relative expressions of liquidity...
5 Min
Macro & Markets
Jun 2025
BTC Coming Home? - Market Update 3/24/2025
“blue chip” meme segment DeFi showing selective strength in both Ethereum and Solana ecosystems ETH/BTC...
3 Min
Macro & Markets
Mar 2025
Macro Signal Monday: BTC Sentiment, Flows, and Macro Align as Market Eyes Breakout (06/16/2025)
Macro Signal Monday sets the tone for BTC capital flows at the start of the week....On the treasury side, Strategy added $1B in BTC via Nasdaq, and Metaplanet officially passed 10,000 BTC...Rather than signaling a rotation out of BTC, the simultaneous strength across BTC and ETH suggests a...
6 Min
Macro & Markets
Jun 2025
Macro Signal Monday: BTC Holds the Range and Geopolitics Takes Center Stage (06/23/2025)
...yields stable, inflation easing Geopolitics: Middle East tensions persist but market impact muted BTC...On the crypto side, BTC ETF inflows came in strong again at $1.02B, marking the second straight week...For now, capital is staying engaged and unless Middle East tensions materially escalate, BTC appears...BTC and sentiment remain tethered in neutral territory.
9 Min
Macro & Markets
Jun 2025
Zenrock: Paving the Path in dMPC
(dMPC) technology and the transformative applications it enables, with a focus on Zenrock’s wrapped BTC...The minting and redemption processes are permissionless, allowing anyone to lock BTC and receive tBTC...Its 1:1 BTC backing ensures liquidity, while cross-chain compatibility and multi-yield opportunities...
12 Min
Cross-Chain
Feb 2025
Market Musings - ETF Flows Shine As BTC Flirts With Range Highs
BTC Spot ETFs — Summer Starts With Massive ETF Flows Reminder, Delphi’s BTC Spot ETF Flow Tracker can...these metrics and how BTC reacts in the coming days....BTC Market Structure — Compressing The Spring With such impressive flows, what gives?...When you look at BTC, last week’s pullback is barely noticeable.
9 Min
Macro & Markets
Jun 2024
Market Musings - A Bullish Beat Down For BTC Bears
BTC Spot ETFs — Bulls Take The Wheel Reminder, Delphi’s BTC Spot ETF Flow Tracker can be found here....two month period after ETF approval, these products experienced strong and sustained inflows, with BTC...surge in BTC price fueled by these impressive ETF numbers....BTC is now trading at $69.5K, and the shorter timeframe moving averages have started to flip.
8 Min
Macro & Markets
May 2024
Hope Metric : Macro Signal Monday (05-19-2025)
Macro Signal Monday sets the tone for BTC capital flows at the start of the week....: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy): +7,390 BTC ($765M) Metaplanet: +1,004 BTC ($105M) Combined: $860M...Signal 4: Institutional BTC Actions – Neutral No daily ETF flow reported....for $860M+ in BTC buys – a clear sign of confidence in long-term positioning.  ...
4 Min
Macro & Markets
May 2025
April Showers… May Flowers? - Macro & Markets May 2025
Delphi’s BTC Top Signal Model The Delphi BTC Top Signal indicator is a proprietary model that measures...BTC-denominated hash price has hovered between 0.52 and 0.53 BTC per EH for weeks....The contrast between BTC and ETH ETF demand remains significant....Alongside the ETH pivot, BTC and SOL activity also accelerated.
25 Min
Macro & Markets
Jun 2025
Hope Metric : Macro Signal Monday (06-02-2025)
Macro Signal Monday sets the tone for BTC capital flows at the start of the week. ...a BTC treasury with 4,710 BTC Reitar announced plans to acquire $1.5 billion worth of BTC through...If not, BTC is more likely to remain range-bound with a slight downside lean.  ...
7 Min
Macro & Markets
Jun 2025
Inside the Ecosystem: Fueling Aptos' Global Trading Engine
Structure-wise, Echo differs from other traditional BTC staking protocols by combining a unified and...Users can deposit native BTC, BTC LSTs like LBTC, or wrapped BTC like wBTC or fBTC....Echo then locks the underlying assets and mints a composable Aptos BTC (aBTC) that can be freely used...Another standout feature is Echo’s approach to BTC yield.
39 Min
Infrastructure
Jun 2025
Market Musings - New Year, More Volatility
BTC open interest with BTC falling from $105K to $92K....This is exactly what we saw across major benchmarks like SPY, QQQ, and BTC....BTC range lows are around $90K, with price again overthrowing this area....ETF flows have been throughout the last several weeks even as BTC has stagnated.
13 Min
Macro & Markets
Jan 2025
Sui's Q1 Wrapped: BitcoinFi, MEV, and Scaling
...sector has grown from under $100M to over $4.5B in TVL across restaked, anchored, and decentralized BTC...In late 2024, Sui announced partnerships with Babylon Labs and Lombard Protocol to introduce native BTC...A few weeks later, in December 2024, the Satlayer partnership opened BTC restaking opportunities for...Since then, over 587 BTC have flowed into Sui DeFi.
13 Min
Infrastructure
Apr 2025