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Reflexivity & the Fall of the Efficient Market Hypothesis
...concepts: fallibility and reflexivity....The Theory of Reflexivity in General Terms After all of that, what exactly IS the Theory of Reflexivity...This is the idea of reflexivity....More on reflexive feedback loops shortly. ...Keep in mind that not all price dislocations are a product of reflexivity.
22 Min
Financial Market Themes
Aug 2022
Liquidity Cascades & the Evolution of Financial Markets
...logical continuation and practical application of many concepts that were discussed in the report “Reflexivity...These concepts include reflexivity, feedback loops (both positive and negative), incentives, and many...The Market Incentive Loop is a real-world application of the reflexive feedback loops discussed in our...Reflexivity Report.
24 Min
Financial Market Themes
Sep 2022
The Public Crypto Accumulator Era - Part 1
These are public crypto accumulators: companies that use equity, debt, and reflexive investor demand...The result is a reflexive system....But this reflexivity works both ways....Balance Sheet Reflexivity: SharpLink’s capital raise created a reflexive loop where ETH accumulation...
31 Min
Macro & Markets
Jun 2025
The Beginning of the Journey for the Aave Safety Module
This would mitigate the reflexive dynamic pointed in Figure 2 and would also potentially allow AAVE price...As was pointed before, the higher the share of AAVE within the SM, the more powerful the reflexive dynamic...Thus, I consider its addition to the SM a positive step towards making the SM more robust (and less reflexive...
8 Min
DeFi
Dec 2020
Speculation Spillover
Reflexivity is a Two-Way Highway Like crypto, risk assets are prone to reflexivity, and like volatility..., reflexivity works in both directions; the hard part is knowing when the market will turn, for better...
6 Min
Indices
Feb 2021
Governance Digest
In The Forums Reflexer Becomes Ungovernable Synopsis: Reflexer, an unpegged algo-stablecoin protocol...User Sionescu has posted a great synopsis of the first phase of this process in the Reflexer governance...From governance minimized protocols like Reflexer to actively managed protocols like Juicebox, each position...
9 Min
DAO
Jan 2022
Is RAI the Decentralized Stablecoin the Market Needs?
...this report, we explore an alternative form of crypto native money: RAI, a non-pegged stablecoin by Reflexer...Reflexer can be difficult to wrap your head around at first due to the sheer number of market driven,...Reflexer’s SAFEs — akin to Maker Vaults — have seen minting/creation rates slow to an abysmal pace.
11 Min
null
Aug 2022
Stablecoin Supply, Airdrop Rumours & FX Stablecoin Pools
...s=w —0xHamZ (@0xHamZ) May 18, 2022 Momentum Bitcoin and Reflexivity Crypto remains a reflexive asset...fundamentals, you must admit the opposite. https://insights.deribit.com/market-research/momentum-bitcoin-and-reflexivity...
6 Min
AMM
May 2022
Select NFTs Shine, RAI Proves Stable, DAO Updates
Reflexer’s Path to Adoption RAI, a pegless stablecoin, has proved to have an effective design, as evidenced...A very small number of Reflexer Safes — akin to Maker’s vaults — have been created daily since the initial...
4 Min
DAO
Sep 2021
Anchoring The Market To A New Reference Rate
In the long-term, we argue Anchor helps break some of the downward reflexivity we can expect to see in...Breaking the Negative Reflexive Cycle Aside from what’s already been mentioned, Anchor represents a key...arguably more important reason: it’s a fundamental tool for mitigating the potentially fatal, negative reflexive...
10 Min
Layer 1 / L1
Mar 2021
Bitcoin for Advisors [Presentation]
...material portion of global savings. https://www.sifma.org/resources/research/fact-book/ Slide 3: High Reflexivity...In markets, reflexivity is a curious phenomenon where the change in investors’ perceptions of an asset...
7 Min
DeFi
Nov 2020
Was That The Top? Ruminations on the Alleged DeFi Bubble
...crypto’s inherent fondness for speculation into fundamentals, growth and community, creating a positive reflexive...Caveats: Global Macro and Reflexivity It’s important to note that crypto sits at the very edge of the...Just as Yield Farming causes positive reflexive loops on the way up (as speculation leads to higher yield...
9 Min
DeFi
Sep 2020
Aave on AVAX, Delta One Farming, & veToken Alternatives
Initially, this has reflexivity to the upside....A reflexive loop to the downside begins to take hold, as liquidity exiting the DEX makes it fundamentally...
8 Min
Money Markets
Apr 2022
Will ETH Remain Inflationary Despite The Merge?
This refers to a real-world application of the reflexive feedback loops discussed in our previous report...on reflexivity and the fall of the Efficient Market Hypothesis.
4 Min
Macro & Markets
Sep 2022
$AMPL -  The Not So Stable Stablecoin
Geyser) as the activation energy necessary to push and sustain bullish sentiment, and b) Ampleforth’s reflexive...look at the state of Ampleforth’s Telegram) carrying AMPL price up, investors should be aware that the reflexive...
6 Min
DeFi
Jul 2020
Follow Up To Our PowerPool Proposal
...permanent liquidity and the yield from the vault will only keep making it deeper over time also being reflexive...The PowerPool idea has a reflexive mechanism built in where, if the scarce supply and 1/8th target threshold...This creates a reflexive mechanism where the more in demand they become, the more their supply gets burned...
15 Min
DeFi
Sep 2020
April Showers… May Flowers? - Macro & Markets May 2025
These surges coincided with upward moves in BTC price, reinforcing the reflexive relationship between...Extreme Optimism (80–100): Euphoric conditions, often driven by reflexive inflows or over-positioning...Interpretation in Reflexive Contexts The Hope Metric draws on reflexivity theory commonly applied in...
25 Min
Macro & Markets
Jun 2025
$AMPL -  The Not So Stable Stablecoin
Geyser) as the activation energy necessary to push and sustain bullish sentiment, and b) Ampleforth’s reflexive...look at the state of Ampleforth’s Telegram) carrying AMPL price up, investors should be aware that the reflexive...
6 Min
DeFi
Jul 2020
The Policymaker Conundrum (Oct. '21 Chartbook, Part II)
Now, when I say we, I mean all of us, because the negative reflexivity of such an event would have major...At its most extreme, if asset prices collapse, it could lead to a downward reflexive spiral of sell-offs...
10 Min
Infrastructure
Nov 2021
Multi-Chain DeFi, Terra's Scare, and DAI's Resilience
...and LUNA were two of the hardest hit by this month’s crash, and their rebounds can be considered more reflexive...
3 Min
DAO
May 2021