Global Macro Themes

In early February, we wrote about the turnaround in the global liquidity cycle and its influence on the market’s strong start to the year. Since then, the broad crypto market is up ~14%, largely driven by BTC and ETH, which have gained 25% and 15%, respectively. Bitcoin’s outperformance is logical given it’s arguably the “closest to the money” and the purest play on liquidity fluctuations.

This week on Bull vs. Bear, we start with Charts of the Week, revisiting altcoin Open Interest Dominance and Treasury volatility. In Market Matters, we explore the “sell in May” meme’s relevance to crypto, looking at Bitcoin’s historical performance during this period and the driving factors behind it. Finally, we discuss the upcoming FOMC meeting, potential all-time highs, and whether we’re in an altcoin season in our Bullish or Bearish segment.

In this week's Bull vs. Bear episode, we delve deep into the Market Matters section, discussing the persistent banking crisis and its potential impact on the crypto markets. We analyze Jamie Dimon's Letter to Shareholders and dissect his outlook on the evolving financial landscape ahead of the upcoming CPI release. In our Charts of the Week segment, Kevin Kelly examines the US Treasury's role in the banking collapse, while Jason Pagoulatos explores the Open Interest Dominance of alt cryptocurrencies and its implications for market direction. Finally, our Bullish or Bearish section touches on a few critical topics in the crypto sphere, including Ethereum's possible breakout, Binance's legal issues, and the readiness of DeFi to overtake Centralized Exchanges.

We’ve been saying for months that access to funding is the biggest risk to the crypto industry this year. Never has that been more relevant than right now given the events of the last few days.

Immediately after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's address at the end of the FOMC meeting, Kevin Kelly and Jason Pagoulatos will step up to their microphones to present a timely Market Matters discussion. They'll explore potential market reactions to the Fed's decision to either continue hiking rates or pause them amid recent banking collapses, and assess the implications of the coordinated central bank action that could signal a potential restart of QE. In the Bullish or Bearish segment, they delve into Balaji's audacious $1 million Bitcoin after 90 days bet, examining the ideological stakes and potential impact from various perspectives.

In the wake of Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and USDC's temporary depegging, Kevin Kelly and Jason Pagoulatos host a special Market Matter's segment. They delve into the impact on future funding for crypto projects, analyze why markets have historically gone down after the pivot, and explore how the attractiveness of TBills may make crypto less appealing. Additionally, they examine the short-term rally of major cryptocurrencies and its downstream effects for macro and crypto markets.

In this episode of Bull v Bear, Kevin Kelly and Jason Pagoulatos discuss the potential effects of Jerome Powell's hawkish comments on Capitol Hill for the rest of the year in the markets. Applying probabilistic thinking, Kevin and Jason offer possible impacts on the economy and market trends. The team also reviews their charts of the week and give their bullish or bearish takes on upcoming events. Tune in to find out which side will emerge victorious this week.

Bull v Bear is our new premium macro livestream with analysis from Head of Research, Kevin Kelly and Market Associate, Jason Pagoulatos. They cover the charts of the week, the main market talking points and give their bullish or bearish takes on upcoming events. Every episode, the Bull or Bear emerges victorious.

Bull v Bear is our new premium macro livestream with analysis from Head of Research, Kevin Kelly and Market Associate, Jason Pagoulatos. They cover the charts of the week, the main market talking points and give their bullish or bearish takes on upcoming events. Every episode, the Bull or Bear emerges victorious.

Recent increases in global liquidity have been a driving factor in this year's market rally. There is evidence supporting potential trend continuation in the coming weeks, as there are still multiple headwinds that could drag on markets as we move closer to late Q1/Q2. Funding liquidity will remain a key risk throughout the year, especially for high-growth industries (like crypto). We've noted that the move to a more expansionary global liquidity environment is the most important catalyst for a renewed and sustainable bull run in our view.

Bull v Bear is our new premium macro livestream with analysis from Head of Research, Kevin Kelly and Market Associate, Jason Pagoulatos. They cover the charts of the week, the main market talking points and give their bullish or bearish takes on upcoming events. Every episode, the Bull or Bear emerges victorious.

2022 was The Great Reset for crypto. Overly hyped trends and mass speculation pushed the crypto market far out over its skis by the end of 2021, so this year’s washout was a necessary reset. Sizable corrections are healthy for long-term secular uptrends.